Friday, August 15, 2008

The VP Dance Winds Down

by Richard Holcomb

Today Mark Halperin of Time takes a somewhat whimsical look at the "head and heart" options for McCain and Obama in choosing a running mate:

McCain’s head pick: Mitt Romney

Obama’s head pick:
Evan Bayh

McCain’s heart picks: Lindsey Graham, Tom Ridge

Obama’s heart picks: Tim Kaine, Kathleen Sebelius

McCain’s head/heart picks:
Joe Lieberman, Bobby Jindal

Obama’s head/heart picks:
Chris Dodd, Joe Biden

It is likely that Obama will name his choice by mid-week next week, i.e., several days before the Democratic Convention begins on Monday, August 25. The latest announcements of convention speakers have Bayh, Biden and Richardson scheduled the same night (Wednesday) as the VP candidate, the night where national security is the theme. There has been some late noise about Wes Clark and certainly Chris Dodd has national security credibility.

McCain's trial balloon that he could choose someone who is not pro-choice has brought the predictable hue and cry from the Republican base, and the likelihood of his choosing pals Lieberman or Ridge appear to be "slim and none." Romney might help with hard core political conservatives but his Mormon faith is very unsettling to many Christian conservatives. Importantly, McCain's uptick in both national and several pivotal state polls is coming largely from GOP party members returning to the fold. Whoever he chooses, he will wait until immediately after the Democratic convention to announce in an effort to minimize any post-convention Obama bounce.

I don't see how either candidate would benefit from choosing one of the governors on the list. Further, the selection of Kaine or Sebelius could further strengthen the McCain argument to undecided voters---particularly white working class and independents--- that choosing the "not ready" Democrats is too risky.



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