GOP Prospects in Senate Races Brightening

by Richard Holcomb

In what could have been a disastrous year, the prospects for the Republicans minimizing their losses are as good as we've seen to date. First, as Chris Cillizza reminds us in the Washington Post today, Joe Lieberman is moving steadily toward the Republicans and may get thrown out of the Democratic caucus come January. Second, the choice of a Birch Bayh--now a slight favorite for the VP slot---would open a Senate seat likely to be filled by incumbent Indiana Republican Governor Mitch Daniels, ahead in his race for re-election.

Looking at The Fix's top ten list, its hard to see how the Democrats will not pick up the seats in Alaska, New Mexico and Virginia. For reasons just stated, those three victories could add up to a net gain of one seat.

From there, the outlook is murky at best, and McCain at the top of the GOP ticket is a net plus. Jean Shaheen's lead has shrunk to four points in New Hampshire---where the Presidential race is tight and incumbent Republican John Sununu is sitting on a $5 million war chest. In Colorado, Mark Udall should be more than five points ahead given the sorry performance of his opponent early on but faces a huge ultra-right wing ad blitz in another neck-and-neck state.

Several seriously contested races---in Mississippi, North Carolina and Oregon---lean Republican with incumbent Gordon Smith running as far away as possible from Bush and even McCain. Al Franken is back within competitive range in Minnesota, but the double-digit Obama lead in the polls has disappeared and its still uphill against incumbent Norm Coleman. Mary Landrieu is the only incumbent Democrat being challenged, but in post-Katrina, GOP-leaning Louisiana, it will be down to the wire at best.

Stated simply, whoever is the next President will need extraordinary negotiating skills to get things done in a Senate where neither side has 60 votes and the President will have little margin of error to get action on the most critical issues.