Unconventional Wisdom: Jonah Goldberg on Iraq

Conservative columnist Jonah Goldberg writes in The National Review that Iraq going better favors Barack Obama.

If it were going worse, McCain’s Churchillian rhetoric would match reality better. But with sectarian violence nearly gone, al Qaeda in Iraq almost totally routed and even Sadrist militias seemingly neutralized, the stakes of withdrawal seem low enough for Americans to feel comfortable voting for Obama. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki’s support for an American troop drawdown pushes the perceived stakes even lower.

Ezra Klein of The American Prospect agrees.

That's basically right. The McCain strategy requires an odd "sweet spot" to succeed: Iraq must be neither stable enough to make American withdrawal a conceivable possibility, nor bloody enough to make American retreat a public priority. In early-2005, the situation was bad enough that most Americans wanted to get the hell out whatever the cost. So Democrats won big in 2006 on a platform of withdrawal. In late-2008, it's good enough that most Americans want to...get the hell out. And I think it's entirely possible that, again, Democrats will win big on a platform of withdrawal. The difference is, now voters can endorse it with a clear conscience. Hell, the government of Iraq is even asking us to leave. McCain is trying to reshape the issue into a question of honor, but that doesn't make a lot of sense: There's nothing dishonorable about leaving when your job is done.