Robinson on Immigration Reform

Eugene Robinson captures the dilemma of House Republicans on immigration reform in the Washington Post.

The Republican establishment is desperate to get immigration reform over and done with. The arithmetic is simple: In last year’s election, with Mitt Romney advocating “self-deportation” as a solution for the undocumented, Obama won 71 percent of the Latino vote and 73 percent of the Asian American vote. If these fast-growing minority groups become as loyal to the Democratic Party as African Americans are, the GOP’s ability to compete in national elections will be in serious doubt.

Members of the House, however, run in local elections — and most are in districts gerrymandered to be “safe.” There are those in Boehner’s caucus who recognize that immigration reform needs to be approved for the good of the party, but who worry — with good reason — that if they vote for amnesty they will invite a primary challenge from the far right.

This is the stumbling block to the GOP making necessary policy changes to prevent it from becoming politically irrelevant on the national stage. Right-wing media has a very successful business model: sell outrage to a dwindling group of angry white men over 50 at irreversible changes in an increasingly diverse electorate.  Gerrymandered House districts (thank you, Tom DeLay) mean the greatest political threat to GOP members of Congress is a primary challenge from the right.  So, the House GOP gets increasingly extreme, to the detriment of both the party and the country.

Robinson's solution:

Under the most likely scenario, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who has the whole cat-herding thing down pat, would deliver virtually the entire Democratic caucus in support. Most Republicans would vote no, but there should be enough defections to push the measure over the 218-vote threshold and send it to President Obama for his signature.

Such a move would likely cost Boehner his Speakership.  I won't hold my breath.