Why Polls Still Support Obama

Nate Silver offers an explanation on his New York Times blog Five Thirty Eight.

There are a lot of theories as to why Mr. Obama’s approval ratings have been unchanged in the wake of these controversies, which some news accounts and many of Mr. Obama’s opponents are describing as scandals. But these analyses may proceed from the wrong premise if they assume that the stories have had no impact. It could be that the controversies are, in fact, putting some downward pressure on Mr. Obama’s approval ratings — but that the losses are offset by improved voter attitudes about the economy.

In the latest Washington Post survey, Mr. Obama’s approval rating on the economy is 48 percent — up from 44 percent in April. This follows a series of surveys showing that consumer confidence is at or near its highest point since Mr. Obama took office. The economic mood may have been lifted by two highly visible indicators — record-breaking stock prices and rebounding housing prices — along with a series of improved jobs reports.