538 Predicts Capitol Hill Split

Nate Silver predicts a GOP takeover of the House with the Democrats retaining control of the Senate in next week's mid-terms in his FiveThirtyEight blog for The New York Times. He forecasts a 231-204 edge for the Republicans in the House and a 52-48 margin for the Democrats in the Senate. He adds the following comment to put the probable outcome in perspective:

The reason that Democrats are most likely to hold the Senate but not the House — the necessary and sufficient reason — is because only one-third of the Senate is up for re-election every two years. If the whole Senate were up for re-election next week, Democrats would lose it and lose it badly.

Andrew Sullivan expresses fear about what the GOP will do with its likely House majority on The Daily Dish.

My sense, and it is a deeply depressing one, is that the Republicans have absolutely no intention of proposing, let alone making, any serious cuts in entitlement or defense spending if they gain control of the House or Senate, that they will try to stop any increase in taxes for those earning over $250,000 a year, and that their goal will be to destroy Obama personally and politically as they tried with Clinton. They have no constructive agenda. They have no interest in actually tackling the debt - just using it as a political ammunition.

--Ballard Burgher