Four Ways the Iran Crisis May Resolve

Tony Karon outlines four potential resolutions to the disputed Iranian election and its aftermath in Time.

1) 1979 Revolution 2.0--a complete revolution in which the government is overthrown by the dissidents.

2) A Tehran Tiananmen--a very bloody suppression of dissent by the current regime.

3) A retreat by Supreme Leader Khamenei involving a new election or runoff between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi.

4) A negotiated preservation of the current regime keeping Ahmadinejad in place but incorporating dissident leaders.

Karon thinks #4 is most likely.

Already, Khamenei has appealed to a sense of national unity and preserving the regime, hoping to cajole the opposition into accepting the results. And at his first press conference following the announcement of his victory, Ahmadinejad reportedly asked his opponents to submit lists of candidates for membership in his Cabinet. Khamenei and Ahmadinejad may be hoping that standing firm and having the Guardian Council affirm his victory after a 10-day recount will produce enough opposition fatigue, which, combined with the threat of violence, will see the protests peter out. By so doing, Khamenei would hope that the pragmatic conservatives — embodied by Mousavi — can be weaned away from the reformists (led by former President Mohammed Khatami) by giving them a stake in a national unity government and promises to moderate Ahmadinejad's style of governance.

However, that scenario would come into play only if Mousavi believed that he was losing the battle and risked disaster by keeping his supporters out on the street. Right now, there are no signs that the opposition feels beaten. (Mugabe's opponents settled for the deal only when they had been so pummeled that they could see no hope of unseating him.) Which is why all four options may remain in play while the various camps test one another's strength in the coming days.

--Ballard Burgher