Timing Argues for Conventional VP Picks

That's the take from Walter Shapiro, a veteran reporter, today. His reason:

"Deciding when you pick a vice president shapes whom you pick. By waiting until the eve of their conventions, both Obama and McCain will face nearly irresistible pressures to pick nominees who are safe, secure and a trifle soporific. There is nothing like the onset of a convention to create a groundswell for a conventional vice president."

Right now McCain is being lobbied heavily not to choose Mormon George Romney by Christian conservatives. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty fills the evangelical bill and is a very attractive new face in the party. Another very articulate conservative, Senator Rod Thune of South Dakota (the guy who beat Tom Daschle) also is in the wings. Able but largely invisible prospects like Rod Portman, current Bush budget director and former Ohio congressman, seem unlikely unless they put a pivotal state in play, which Pawlenty cannot do.


The majority of speculation on the Democratic side has now shifted back to Birch Bayh, who would probably be the safest Obama choice---though speculation that Bayh could tip Indiana to the Democrats is not persuasive. Tim Kaine has the right bonafides as a non-Washington person, but I have been unimpressed with his recent TV "auditions" and a first term governor is not necessarily "safe," Nor is a Kathryn Sebelius of Kansas, particularly given the hardcore Hillaryite factor. I still believe Joe Biden is the strongest on merit and as a much needed number one surrogate. But don't ask me for my track record as a candidate picker.