States That Rate: Florida

by Richard Holcomb

Andrew Romano, who writes The Stumper column for Newsweek online, is fast becoming a truly excellent source regarding the current campaign.

Here's his rundown on the Obama-McCain race in Florida:

"Here's the math. Since the start of the general-election season, Obama has dropped $6.51 million--a full 18 percent of his overall ad spending, and by the largest chunk of change allotted to any one state--to broadcast 10,000 commercials on Florida television. McCain's total disbursement? $0, zero ads. Meanwhile, Chicago has sent more than 200 full-time staffers and signed up at least 150,000 online volunteers to man the state's 35 field offices--the most of any battleground. McCain's local staff is a quarter of the size, and much of it is shared with the state party. Obama's goal, says deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand, is to register the 630,000 eligible Hispanics, 593,000 African-Americans and 236,000 18- to 24-year-olds not yet on the rolls. With 236,000 new Democrats racked up since January--compared to 126,000 new Republicans--they're well on their way. "We need to expand the electorate," Hildebrand recently told the St. Peterburg Times, "because we know the election is going to be so close."

If Obama can win Florida on Nov. 4--which George W. Bush carried by five points in 2004--he's almost guaranteed to win the White House. But that's a big "if." The state has been trending red in recent years, and McCain--an older, moderate-seeming Vietnam vet--is uniquely suited to appeal to the state's three million seniors and 1.75 military veterans. Also worth noting: Dems may have outregistered Republicans by more than 60,000 votes in 2004, but the state's well-oiled GOP machine turned out 75 percent of its new supporters that year to John Kerry & Co.'s 66 percent; McCain, who has quietly opened a not-insignificant 25 field offices in Florida--more than twice as many as the next closest state--will benefit from the same GOTV operation.

Which is why the whizzes at FiveThirtyEight.com, who use a complex statistical model of recent polling, past results and demographic data to predict Election Day outcomes, currently give the Republican nominee a 73 percent chance of winning."

The Sensible Center sees an Obama upset in Florida unlikely even with the major registration drive. This will put the premium on victory on Ohio, Michigan , Iowa and the Western states currently in play. For more insight, check out the terrific five thirty eight site a least a couple of times a week.