Charlie Cook: The Voice of Political Reason

by Richard Holcomb

I will confess that I am not a calm, reasoned observer of the mad machinations of this political season. Fortunately, Charlie Cook of the Cook Report is, and here's his up-to-the-minute assessment of the Presidential race:

"The media cycle is oh-so-predictable. One poll comes out with a wider margin than the average. The 'Excitables' then push the "Obama is pulling away" mantra, despite the fact that the poll was an outlier from most of the others. Then that same polling organization (the same ones often provide a disproportionate share of the outliers) will come out with a new poll, close to the average, and the new mantra is "Obama's lead is evaporating." Meanwhile, very little, if anything, has happened.

This race, in my opinion, has been close, is close and hasn't changed much. Republicans have firmed up a bit but that is to be expected. Obama still is underperforming in his party, a sign that should be worrisome to Democrats. But, again, that is not new.

If you see the Pollster.com trend estimates or the Real Clear Politics averages get to dead even and stay there for a few days, or Obama widen his lead to six for more than a few days, you know the race has changed. But until then, avoid over interpreting outlier polls."

I am beginning to agree with those that believe Obama & Co. have been quiet conscious in their decision not to take on McCain's negative ads and charges tit-for-tat. It has cost him some points in the polls, but those same polls now show about 30% of voters view McCain as a negative campaigner and a clear majority say he is doing more attacking than explaining his positions and plans. And, in fact, they have been running hard-hitting ads in key states, many of them linked to local economic conditions.

This late in the campaign season, we may or may not see a significant Obama bump coming out of the convention, but there is little question that they will ratchet up a fierce, highly targeted ad and registration campaign immediately after Labor Day.